The Race for the West

The Western Conference enters the 2026–27 season with two teams at the center of the championship conversation: the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder. After meeting in a seven-game Western Conference Finals series last spring, both teams are again expected to compete for the conference title.

The NBA General Managers Survey places San Antonio and Oklahoma City virtually level at the top, followed by Minnesota, Denver and Houston. The Lakers and Trail Blazers also received votes, reflecting a competitive conference with several different paths to contention.

Below, we examine all 15 Western Conference teams, their projected starting lineups, the most important roster developments and their expectations entering the season.

Projected starters are editorial estimates, not confirmed starting lineups. They remain subject to availability, coaching decisions and final roster checks.

The Leading Contenders

San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder lead the conference conversation. The Spurs combine Victor Wembanyama’s extraordinary two-way influence with a rapidly developing young backcourt, while Oklahoma City continues to build around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and one of the NBA’s strongest defensive systems.

Minnesota Timberwolves, Denver Nuggets and Houston Rockets form the next group. Minnesota has reshaped its backcourt around Anthony Edwards, Denver remains anchored by Nikola Jokić, and Houston hopes improved guard play will complement Kevin Durant and its athletic frontcourt.

The Lakers bring Luka Dončić into a new chapter without LeBron James, while Portland’s ambitious backcourt changes create another storyline to follow.

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1. San Antonio Spurs

GM Survey: Western Conference No. 1 (tied on total points)

Projected core: De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Tobias Harris, Victor Wembanyama.

San Antonio enters the season after winning 62 games in 2025–26 and reaching the NBA Finals. Wembanyama has become the centerpiece of one of the league’s most balanced teams, combining rim protection, scoring versatility and an unusual ability to influence games at both ends of the floor. The Spurs ranked among the league’s top five teams in both offensive and defensive efficiency last season.

The next stage of development revolves around Castle and Dylan Harper. Both provide ball-handling and attacking ability alongside Fox, giving San Antonio multiple options to initiate its offense. With most of last season’s rotation returning and Tobias Harris adding experience, continuity could be an important advantage.

2. Oklahoma City Thunder

GM Survey: Western Conference No. 2 (tied on total points)

Projected core: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein.

Oklahoma City finished the 2025–26 regular season with a conference-leading 64–18 record before losing to San Antonio in the Western Conference Finals. Gilgeous-Alexander remains the offensive leader, supported by Williams and Holmgren. The Thunder’s defensive organization and ability to force difficult possessions continue to distinguish them from much of the league.

The challenge this season is maintaining that standard after losing several important rotation contributors, including Lu Dort, Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins. Greater responsibilities for Wallace and Ajay Mitchell could help offset those departures. The Thunder’s ability to preserve their defensive identity while redistributing minutes will be central to another championship campaign.

3. Minnesota Timberwolves

GM Survey: Western Conference No. 3

Projected core: LaMelo Ball, Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Jonathan Kuminga, Rudy Gobert.

Minnesota finished sixth in the West last season with a 49–33 record, but its offseason changes have created a different supporting cast around Edwards. The arrival of LaMelo Ball gives Minnesota another primary playmaker and could allow Edwards to spend more time attacking without the ball.

The departures of Julius Randle and Naz Reid change the team’s frontcourt balance. McDaniels remains a valuable perimeter defender, while Gobert carries significant responsibility for protecting the paint. Minnesota’s success will depend on how effectively its new offensive combinations work without compromising the defensive structure that has supported its recent playoff appearances.

4. Denver Nuggets

GM Survey: Western Conference No. 4

Projected core: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Cameron Johnson, Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokić.

Denver finished third in the West at 54–28 and again operated one of the NBA’s most productive offenses. Jokić remains the system’s central figure, creating scoring opportunities through passing, screening and efficient interior play. His partnership with Murray continues to provide a reliable foundation.

Denver’s principal concern is its defensive consistency and rotation depth. Injuries limited Gordon and Braun last season, while offseason departures reduced some of the team’s supporting options. A healthier starting group would strengthen Denver’s ability to compete with San Antonio and Oklahoma City, but the performance of its reserves could become increasingly important during the regular season.

5. Houston Rockets

GM Survey: Western Conference No. 5

Projected core: Fred VanVleet, Amen Thompson, Kevin Durant, Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Şengün.

Houston won 52 games last season and finished fifth in the conference. Durant provides established perimeter scoring, while Şengün contributes playmaking from the frontcourt. Thompson’s athleticism and defensive versatility give Houston another dimension, particularly in transition and against opposing perimeter scorers.

VanVleet’s return could address an important weakness from last season: offensive organization. Houston struggled with turnovers and often needed too much time to initiate possessions. More consistent guard play, combined with the team’s established rebounding strength, could help convert its talent into a more efficient offensive system.

6. Los Angeles Lakers

GM Survey: Western Conference No. 6

Projected core: Luka Dončić, Austin Reaves, Quentin Grimes, a rotating forward option, Walker Kessler.

The Lakers enter a new era following LeBron James’ departure to Philadelphia. Dončić is now the clear focal point, with Reaves providing additional scoring and creation. Los Angeles finished fourth in the West last season with a 53–29 record, demonstrating its ability to win close games despite a less convincing overall point differential.

The offseason brought substantial roster turnover, including the additions of Kessler, Grimes and several supporting players. Kessler offers a different defensive presence around the basket, but perimeter defense remains an important question. The Lakers have considerable offensive potential; their progress will depend on establishing a more reliable defensive identity around Dončić.

7. Portland Trail Blazers

GM Survey: Western Conference No. 7

Projected core: Ja Morant, Damian Lillard, Deni Avdija, Toumani Camara, Donovan Clingan.

Portland finished seventh in the 2025–26 regular-season standings with a 42–40 record and reached the playoffs. The additions of Morant and the return of Lillard create a significantly different offensive environment, combining speed, individual shot creation and veteran experience.

The central challenge is balancing a guard-heavy roster with defensive requirements. Avdija and Camara provide important versatility on the wings, while Clingan anchors the interior. Portland has more offensive options, but finding effective combinations and distributing responsibilities will determine whether those additions translate into a sustained improvement.

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Teams Outside the GM Survey Rankings

The following eight teams did not appear among the seven Western Conference teams receiving enough votes to enter the GM Survey rankings. Their positions below refer to the 2025–26 regular season, not a prediction of where they will finish in 2026–27.

8. Phoenix Suns

2025–26: 8th in the West, 45–37 | Outside GM Survey rankings

Projected core: Devin Booker, Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, a rotating forward option, Mark Williams.

Phoenix remains built around Booker’s offensive versatility and ability to create high-quality scoring opportunities. Green provides another dynamic perimeter option, while Brooks contributes physical defense and a competitive presence on the wing. Last season, the Suns reached the playoffs but were eliminated by Oklahoma City.

The opportunity for improvement depends partly on Green’s health and the development of consistent offensive chemistry. Phoenix demonstrated encouraging results when its main perimeter players shared the floor, but the sample was limited. More continuity could help the Suns compete with the conference’s stronger middle-tier teams.

9. LA Clippers

2025–26: 9th in the West, 42–40 | Outside GM Survey rankings

Projected core: Darius Garland, Kris Dunn, Derrick Jones Jr., Rui Hachimura, a rotating center option.

The Clippers enter the season following extensive roster changes. Garland offers a new offensive centerpiece in the backcourt, while Dunn and Jones provide defensive versatility. After finishing ninth in the West last season, Los Angeles faces the challenge of building chemistry across a group with relatively little shared experience.

The departure of several established veterans has changed the team’s identity. More offensive responsibility is expected to fall on Garland, while the coaching staff must develop effective combinations at both ends of the floor. Establishing consistent ball movement and shot creation will be particularly important.

10. Golden State Warriors

2025–26: 10th in the West, 37–45 | Outside GM Survey rankings

Projected core: Stephen Curry, Brandin Podziemski, Jimmy Butler III, Draymond Green, a rotating center option.

Golden State finished the previous regular season below .500, an unusual result for a franchise that has spent much of the past decade competing near the top of the conference. Curry remains the offensive foundation, with his shooting and off-ball movement continuing to shape the team’s approach.

The Warriors must find greater consistency around their veteran core. Their heavy reliance on three-point shooting creates scoring opportunities but can also produce uneven performances. The development of younger rotation players and the availability of established contributors will influence whether Golden State can return to the playoffs.

11. Dallas Mavericks

2025–26: 11th in the West, 26–56 | Outside GM Survey rankings

Projected core: Kyrie Irving, a rotating guard option, Cooper Flagg, P.J. Washington, Dereck Lively II.

Dallas is building around Cooper Flagg, whose rookie season established him as one of the league’s most promising young forwards. Flagg’s ability to score, rebound and create opportunities gives the Mavericks a versatile foundation for their next phase.

Irving’s return adds experience and shot creation, although his health and long-term role remain important questions. Dallas also needs greater availability from Lively, whose defensive impact has been significant when healthy. Developing a productive partnership between Flagg and the team’s returning veterans is central to the Mavericks’ progress.

12. New Orleans Pelicans

2025–26: 12th in the West, 26–56 | Outside GM Survey rankings

Projected core: Dejounte Murray, Trey Murphy III, Herb Jones, Zion Williamson, Derik Queen.

New Orleans enters the season with a roster featuring several established contributors but limited recent team success. Williamson remains a powerful interior scorer, while Murphy provides perimeter shooting and Jones adds defensive versatility. Murray’s playmaking offers another way to organize the offense.

The key question is whether Williamson and Queen can develop a productive frontcourt partnership. Their shared minutes presented defensive challenges last season, creating difficult lineup decisions. Better balance between interior scoring, spacing and defensive coverage would help New Orleans become more competitive.

13. Memphis Grizzlies

2025–26: 13th in the West, 25–57 | Outside GM Survey rankings

Projected core: Ty Jerome, Cedric Coward, Jaylen Wells, Cameron Boozer, Zach Edey.

Memphis has entered a new developmental phase following Ja Morant’s departure. Rookie Cameron Boozer joins a young group featuring Coward, Wells and Edey. The organization now has an opportunity to establish a new foundation around players who can develop together over several seasons.

Jerome provides an experienced offensive presence, while Edey’s size offers potential advantages in rebounding and interior defense. Memphis struggled significantly on the defensive glass last season, making improvement in that area an immediate priority. The development of its younger players will be more important than short-term expectations alone.

14. Utah Jazz

2025–26: 14th in the West, 22–60 | Outside GM Survey rankings

Projected core: Darryn Peterson, Keyonte George, Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr., a rotating center option.

Utah enters the season with more established talent than its previous record suggests. Markkanen remains an efficient scoring option, while Jackson offers a defensive presence and additional offensive versatility. Rookie Darryn Peterson brings another promising dimension to the team’s backcourt.

The Jazz’s most pressing issue is defense. Utah has struggled to prevent efficient scoring opportunities, particularly in transition and from three-point range. Integrating its newer players while developing a more disciplined defensive system will be essential if the team hopes to move beyond the bottom of the Western Conference standings.

15. Sacramento Kings

2025–26: 15th in the West, 22–60 | Outside GM Survey rankings

Projected core: Darius Acuff Jr., Nique Clifford, Keegan Murray, Domantas Sabonis, Maxime Raynaud.

Sacramento finished last in the conference after a difficult season on both ends of the floor. The arrival of rookie guard Darius Acuff Jr. provides a new developmental priority, while Clifford and Raynaud offer additional young talent for the organization to evaluate.

Sabonis remains an experienced offensive facilitator, but Sacramento faces important decisions about how to balance its veterans with its younger players. Improving perimeter shooting, defensive efficiency and overall lineup cohesion will be necessary steps toward rebuilding a competitive team.

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A Conference Defined by Two Leaders — and Several Challengers

San Antonio and Oklahoma City enter 2026–27 with the strongest support from NBA general managers, and their recent playoff rivalry provides a compelling backdrop for the season.

Minnesota, Denver and Houston have the talent to challenge them, while the Lakers and Trail Blazers face important questions following significant roster changes. Beyond those seven teams, the West features a combination of established stars, developing young cores and franchises working to regain their competitive position.

The race for the Western Conference will depend not only on star performances, but also on roster chemistry, defensive consistency and how quickly new combinations develop.

Sources: NBA 2026–27 General Managers Survey (October 15, 2026); NBA.com Western Conference Offseason Power Rankings (August 3, 2026); 2025–26 NBA regular-season standings.